{"id":10280,"date":"2026-01-19T09:41:35","date_gmt":"2026-01-19T08:41:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/?p=10280"},"modified":"2026-01-19T13:26:16","modified_gmt":"2026-01-19T12:26:16","slug":"what-if-ten-dragon-king-scenarios-for-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/what-if-ten-dragon-king-scenarios-for-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"What if\u2026? Ten Dragon King scenarios for 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"

NDC Insight 07-2025: What if\u2026? Ten Dragon King scenarios for 2030<\/em>, by Silvia Colombo, Peter Dobias, Artur Le\u0219cu, Mark McQuay, Clarisa Nelu, Roderick Parkes, Olesya Vinhas de Souza, Marwa Wasfi and Thomas Withington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Edited by Florence Gaub<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What
What if\u2026? Ten Dragon King scenarios for 2030<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surprise isn\u2019t just something we like or don\u2019t like. Surprise has strategic value. When unexpected events unfold, humans need time to respond as their brains update their world view, hence the initial reaction to freeze. In war time, this freeze moment can be a real asset. Reducing surprise involves early warning: detecting developments early enough to understand, and if necessary, counter them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As in the previous What If <\/em>edition, authors were asked to think of a possible development resulting from a weak signal, an indication of a change that they would often have overlooked. Each scenario in this publication has a basis in reality, even if the probability of the scenario occurring may be low. Their utility lies not in their likelihood, but in their capacity to engage you in innovative thinking, which in turn increases your mental preparedness. They are called Dragon Kings: rare, but impactful when they do occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n

\n\n
\n
\n
\n
\"Ic\u00f4ne\"<\/div>\n
\n

What if\u2026? Ten Dragon King scenarios for 2030<\/a><\/h3>\n
<\/i> 1 fichier\u00b7s <\/i> 4 MB<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

NDC Public Affairs Office<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NDC Insight 07-2025: What if\u2026? Ten Dragon King scenarios for 2030, by Silvia Colombo, Peter Dobias, Artur Le\u0219cu,<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":10281,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_plus_copied_stylings":"{}","_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":"[]"},"categories":[3,79,82],"tags":[],"post_badge":[],"class_list":["post-10280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-publications","category-the-future-series"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Insight_2025_xx.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Narantsatsral Enkhbat","author_link":""},"modified_by":"NDC Public Affairs Office","author_meta":{"display_name":"Narantsatsral Enkhbat","author_link":""},"featured_img":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Insight_2025_xx-445x250.jpg","featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Insight_2025_xx.jpg",2048,1152,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Insight_2025_xx-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Insight_2025_xx-445x250.jpg",445,250,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Insight_2025_xx-768x432.jpg",640,360,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Insight_2025_xx-1024x576.jpg",640,360,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Insight_2025_xx-1536x864.jpg",1536,864,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Insight_2025_xx.jpg",2048,1152,false],"trp-custom-language-flag":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Insight_2025_xx-18x10.jpg",18,10,true],"morenews-featured":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Insight_2025_xx-1024x576.jpg",1024,576,true],"morenews-large":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Insight_2025_xx-825x575.jpg",825,575,true],"morenews-medium":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Insight_2025_xx-590x410.jpg",590,410,true]},"category_info":"News<\/a> Publications<\/a> The Future Series<\/a>","tag_info":"The Future Series","comment_count":0,"coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["News<\/a>","Publications<\/a>","The Future Series<\/a>"],"unlinked":["News<\/span>","Publications<\/span>","The Future Series<\/span>"]}},"relative_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 6 mois il y a","modified":"Mis \u00e0 jour 6 mois il y a"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 le janvier 19, 2026","modified":"Mise \u00e0 jour le janvier 19, 2026"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 le janvier 19, 2026 09:41","modified":"Mise \u00e0 jour le janvier 19, 2026 13:26"},"featured_img_caption":"What if\u2026? Ten Dragon King scenarios for 2030","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10280","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10280"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10280\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13980,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10280\/revisions\/13980"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10281"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10280"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10280"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10280"},{"taxonomy":"post_badge","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_badge?post=10280"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}