{"id":11986,"date":"2015-02-25T17:10:12","date_gmt":"2015-02-25T16:10:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/research-report-what-mid-term-future-for-putins-russia\/"},"modified":"2026-01-15T09:11:02","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T08:11:02","slug":"research-report-what-mid-term-future-for-putins-russia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/research-report-what-mid-term-future-for-putins-russia\/","title":{"rendered":"Research Report: &#8220;What mid-term future for Putin&#8217;s Russia?&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/RD_Report_Russia_Feb15_1.jpg\" alt=\"Research Report: What mid-term future for Putin's Russia?\" \/><figcaption>Research Report: What mid-term future for Putin&#8217;s Russia?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper\">\n<ul class='list_homepage'>\n<li><a href='\/fr\/download\/downloads.php\/?icode=439' target='_blank' title=\"click to download (pdf)\"><br \/>\nResearch Report: &quot;What mid-term future for Putin\u2019s Russia?&quot;<\/a>, by Stefanie Babst.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper\">The latest paper by the NDC Research Division  raises two questions regarding Russia under President Vladimir Putin, who for 16 years has been presiding over the largest nation on the globe, one in possession of what is arguably the world\u2019s most powerful nuclear arsenal and massive energy resources. Yet, as the author points out, \u201cthere is still debate about who he really is, what his intentions are, how long his rule could possibly last, and whether Putinism will outlive his departure.\u201d Russia\u2019s growing assertiveness vis-\u00e0-vis its neighbours and former partners in the West, its military muscle-flexing, and its anti-Western rhetoric have reinforced the widespread perception that Putin has increasingly become unpredictable, aggressive and thus dangerous for the West. For these reasons, the question of Russia\u2019s mid-term future has become ever more pressing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper\">This assessment focuses on three questions. First, following Moscow\u2019s annexation of Crimea and destabilizing actions in Ukraine, how stable is the current Russian political regime? Second, in light of Western economic sanctions against Russia, which are the most important challenges that the Muscovite leadership has to cope with in the socio-economic domain?  And third, will these challenges affect Putin\u2019s ability to remain in power?<\/p>\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper\">The author\u2019s goal in this analysis is to help Western analysts create a plausible scenario for Russia\u2019s mid-term future, which may prove valuable for political decision-makers who are contemplating how to frame the West\u2019s future engagement with Russia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper\">\n<p>Dr Jeffrey Larsen, Division Head Research<\/p>\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper\"><span class='np'><a href='\/fr\/research\/publications.php\/?icode=6' target='_blank'>More Research Division Publications&#8230;<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>NDC Public Affairs Office<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Research Report: What mid-term future for Putin&#8217;s Russia? Research Report: &quot;What mid-term future for Putin\u2019s Russia?&quot;, by Stefanie<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_plus_copied_stylings":"{}","_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"post_badge":[],"class_list":["post-11986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"NDC","author_link":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/author\/admin_3rwqf6tj\/"},"modified_by":null,"author_meta":{"display_name":"NDC","author_link":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/author\/admin_3rwqf6tj\/"},"featured_img":null,"featured_image_urls":{"full":"","thumbnail":"","medium":"","medium_large":"","large":"","1536x1536":"","2048x2048":"","trp-custom-language-flag":"","morenews-featured":"","morenews-large":"","morenews-medium":""},"category_info":"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/news\/\" rel=\"category tag\">News<\/a>","tag_info":"News","comment_count":0,"coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/news\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">News<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">News<\/span>"]}},"relative_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 11 ans il y a","modified":"Mis \u00e0 jour 6 mois il y a"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 le f\u00e9vrier 25, 2015","modified":"Mise \u00e0 jour le janvier 15, 2026"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 le f\u00e9vrier 25, 2015 17:10","modified":"Mise \u00e0 jour le janvier 15, 2026 09:11"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11986","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11986"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11986\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11986"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11986"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11986"},{"taxonomy":"post_badge","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_badge?post=11986"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}