\n
<\/p>\n
Whenever something This is not some side character in \n More Research Division Publications…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n NDC Public Affairs Office<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NDC Insight 01-2024: What if\u2026? 12 Dragon King scenarios for 2028, edited by Florence Gaub * Introduction to<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_plus_copied_stylings":"{}","_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"post_badge":[],"class_list":["post-13777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"NDC","author_link":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/author\/admin_3rwqf6tj\/"},"modified_by":null,"author_meta":{"display_name":"NDC","author_link":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/author\/admin_3rwqf6tj\/"},"featured_img":null,"featured_image_urls":{"full":"","thumbnail":"","medium":"","medium_large":"","large":"","1536x1536":"","2048x2048":"","trp-custom-language-flag":"","morenews-featured":"","morenews-large":"","morenews-medium":""},"category_info":"News<\/a>","tag_info":"News","comment_count":0,"coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["News<\/a>"],"unlinked":["News<\/span>"]}},"relative_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 2 ans il y a","modified":"Mis \u00e0 jour 6 mois il y a"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 le mars 22, 2024","modified":"Mise \u00e0 jour le janvier 15, 2026"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 le mars 22, 2024 14:36","modified":"Mise \u00e0 jour le janvier 15, 2026 10:01"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13777","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13777"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13777\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13777"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13777"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13777"},{"taxonomy":"post_badge","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_badge?post=13777"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nsurprising happens, we
\nhave the urge to head to
\nthe foresight zoo. On the right we
\nhave the Black Swans1<\/a> \u2013 big events
\nwe couldn\u2019t even imagine to happen
\n\u2013 and on the left are the Grey Rhinos2<\/a> \u2013 big events we saw coming, but
\ndecided to ignore anyway. But one
\nanimal has gotten little attention: the
\nDragon King.3<\/a>\n<\/p>\n
\nGame of Thrones, but an event that
\nis very unique (\u201ca dragon\u201d) and large
\nin size or effect (a \u201cking\u201d). In contrast
\nto the Black Swan, a Dragon King
\nis imaginable and therefore to some,
\neven if minor, extent, predictable.
\nThis makes the Dragon King a more
\noperational, and therefore useful,
\nconcept than the Black Swan because
\na Dragon King surmises that surprise
\ncan be reduced if we use imagination,
\ncareful causal thinking, and of course,
\nwe monitor the area where we think it
\ncould materialize. <\/p>\n
\nDownload the publication<\/a> to keep reading.<\/p>\n
\n
\nDirector of the Research Division at the NATO Defense College\n <\/div>\n
\nEvidence,\u201d The European Physical Journal, Special Topics, 205.1 (2012): 1\u201326.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n<\/p>\n