{"id":14682,"date":"2026-07-06T11:30:14","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T09:30:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/?p=14682"},"modified":"2026-07-06T11:30:18","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T09:30:18","slug":"betting-on-blue-how-to-improve-nato-military-forecasting-for-acquisitions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/betting-on-blue-how-to-improve-nato-military-forecasting-for-acquisitions\/","title":{"rendered":"Betting on blue: how to improve NATO military forecasting for acquisitions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\">NDC Outlook 07-2026: <em>Betting on blue: how to improve NATO military forecasting for acquisitions<\/em>, by Ben Connable<sup data-fn=\"89e296b4-37c8-4dac-aa88-eb6862d5fe06\" class=\"fn\"><a href=\"#89e296b4-37c8-4dac-aa88-eb6862d5fe06\" id=\"89e296b4-37c8-4dac-aa88-eb6862d5fe06-link\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1152\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07.jpg\" alt=\"Outlook 07 2026\" class=\"wp-image-14683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-445x250.jpg 445w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-18x10.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Outlook 07-2026<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list eplus-wrapper eplus-styles-uid-401a71\">\n<li class=\"eplus-wrapper\">Effective acquisition strategies require a solid, evidence-grounded forecasting methodology and real-world data. But at least for land warfare, that baseline is inadequate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"eplus-wrapper\">Absent a global understanding of land war \u2013 by far the most common and strategically relevant type of conventional and irregular war \u2013 NATO acquisitions may not best address even the pressing threat from Russia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"eplus-wrapper\">\u00a0Analysis of the new Ground Combat Database shows how important findings and questions relevant to acquisitions can be drawn from longitudinal case data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\">Even better analytic approaches are readily available, as are better data. Action plan forecasting and acquisitions can be improved with aggressive and evidence-grounded analyses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<div class='w3eden'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Default Template -->\n\n<div class=\"link-template-default card mb-2\">\n    <div class=\"card-body\">\n        <div class=\"media\">\n            <div class=\"mr-3 img-48\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpdm_icon\" alt=\"Ic\u00f4ne\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/war150.png\" \/><\/div>\n            <div class=\"media-body\">\n                <h3 class=\"package-title\"><a href='https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/download\/betting-on-blue-how-to-improve-nato-military-forecasting-for-acquisitions\/'>Betting on blue: how to improve NATO military forecasting for acquisitions<\/a><\/h3>\n                <div class=\"text-muted text-small\"><i class=\"fas fa-copy\"><\/i> 1 fichier\u00b7s <i class=\"fas fa-hdd ml-3\"><\/i> 19.07 MB<\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ml-3\">\n                <a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary btn-xs' rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/download\/betting-on-blue-how-to-improve-nato-military-forecasting-for-acquisitions\/?wpdmdl=14706&refresh=6a4be04262e0a1783357506\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\">NDC Public Affairs Office<\/p>\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-footnotes has-small-font-size\"><li id=\"89e296b4-37c8-4dac-aa88-eb6862d5fe06\">PhD &#8211; Executive Director of the non-profit Battle Research Group and author of Ground Combat: Puncturing the Myths of Modern War. The author would like to thank Michael McNerney, Battle Research Group, and David Ucko, Head of Net Assessment at NATO Headquarters, for their invaluable reviews of the first draft of this article. <a href=\"#89e296b4-37c8-4dac-aa88-eb6862d5fe06-link\" aria-label=\"Aller \u00e0 la note de bas de page 1\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NDC Outlook 07-2026: Betting on blue: how to improve NATO military forecasting for acquisitions, by Ben Connable Summary<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":14683,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_plus_copied_stylings":"{}","_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":"[{\"content\":\"PhD - Executive Director of the non-profit Battle Research Group and author of Ground Combat: Puncturing the Myths of Modern War. The author would like to thank Michael McNerney, Battle Research Group, and David Ucko, Head of Net Assessment at NATO Headquarters, for their invaluable reviews of the first draft of this article.\",\"id\":\"89e296b4-37c8-4dac-aa88-eb6862d5fe06\"}]"},"categories":[3,79,80],"tags":[],"post_badge":[],"class_list":["post-14682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-publications","category-the-war-series"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Narantsatsral Enkhbat","author_link":""},"modified_by":"NDC Public Affairs Office","author_meta":{"display_name":"Narantsatsral Enkhbat","author_link":""},"featured_img":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-445x250.jpg","featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07.jpg",2048,1152,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-445x250.jpg",445,250,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-768x432.jpg",640,360,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-1024x576.jpg",640,360,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-1536x864.jpg",1536,864,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07.jpg",2048,1152,false],"trp-custom-language-flag":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-18x10.jpg",18,10,true],"morenews-featured":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-1024x576.jpg",1024,576,true],"morenews-large":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-825x575.jpg",825,575,true],"morenews-medium":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Outlook-2026-07-590x410.jpg",590,410,true]},"category_info":"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/news\/\" rel=\"category tag\">News<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Publications<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/the-war-series\/\" rel=\"category tag\">The War Series<\/a>","tag_info":"The War Series","comment_count":0,"coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/news\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">News<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Publications<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/the-war-series\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">The War Series<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">News<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Publications<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">The War Series<\/span>"]}},"relative_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 6 heures il y a","modified":"Mis \u00e0 jour 6 heures il y a"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 le juillet 6, 2026","modified":"Mise \u00e0 jour le juillet 6, 2026"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 le juillet 6, 2026 11:30","modified":"Mise \u00e0 jour le juillet 6, 2026 11:30"},"featured_img_caption":"Outlook 07 2026","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14682"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14682\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14711,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14682\/revisions\/14711"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14683"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14682"},{"taxonomy":"post_badge","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_badge?post=14682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}