![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09.png\")
Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Intelligence warning failures are too often viewed in binary: Either intelligence succeeded or it failed. In reality, often only segments of the warning chain collapse while others operate well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This Outlook paper treats warning success as a spectrum rather than as a pass\/fail test in a new framework for warning performance. It illustrates the use through three recent case studies: the fall of Kabul (2021), Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine (2022) and the Niger coup (2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n The decisive shortfall across all three cases was the failure to reconcile divergent NATO member state views into an operational consensus within NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There are practical solutions for integrating NATO capabilities to institutionalize rapid after-action reviews, conduct periodic divergence drill exercises, prepare contingency packages and further embed red team analyses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n NDC Public Affairs Office<\/p>\n\n\n Nikki Ikani<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NDC Outlook 09-2026, Strategy Series, by Nikki Ikani1 Summary Intelligence warning failures are too often viewed in binary:<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":15045,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_plus_copied_stylings":"{}","_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":"[]"},"categories":[3,79,81],"tags":[],"post_badge":[],"class_list":["post-15044","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-publications","category-the-strategy-series"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Narantsatsral Enkhbat","author_link":""},"modified_by":"NDC Public Affairs Office","author_meta":{"display_name":"Narantsatsral Enkhbat","author_link":""},"featured_img":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09-445x250.png","featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09.png",2048,1152,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09-445x250.png",445,250,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09-768x432.png",640,360,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09-1024x576.png",640,360,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09-1536x864.png",1536,864,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09.png",2048,1152,false],"trp-custom-language-flag":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09-18x10.png",18,10,true],"morenews-featured":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09-1024x576.png",1024,576,true],"morenews-large":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09-825x575.png",825,575,true],"morenews-medium":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/outlook-2026-09-590x410.png",590,410,true]},"category_info":"News<\/a> Publications<\/a> The Strategy Series<\/a>","tag_info":"The Strategy Series","comment_count":0,"coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["News<\/a>","Publications<\/a>","The Strategy Series<\/a>"],"unlinked":["News<\/span>","Publications<\/span>","The Strategy Series<\/span>"]}},"relative_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 10 minutes il y a","modified":"Mis \u00e0 jour 15 minutes il y a"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 le septembre 7, 2026","modified":"Mise \u00e0 jour le septembre 7, 2026"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 le septembre 7, 2026 10:58","modified":"Mise \u00e0 jour le septembre 7, 2026 11:03"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15044","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15044"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15044\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15047,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15044\/revisions\/15047"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15045"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15044"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15044"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15044"},{"taxonomy":"post_badge","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_badge?post=15044"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Ic\u00f4ne\"](\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/strategy150.png\")
<\/div>\n Heed the warning: how NATO can find and fill the gaps in its warning systems<\/a><\/h3>\n
NDC Senior Non-Resident Associate Fellow, Assistant Professor in Intelligence and Security at Leiden University, Visiting Research Fellow at King\u2019s College London 1<\/a>\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/p>\n\n