{"id":2572,"date":"2024-04-15T11:25:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T10:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsite.ndc.nato.int\/?p=2572"},"modified":"2025-03-28T13:15:31","modified_gmt":"2025-03-28T12:15:31","slug":"nato-and-a-taiwan-contingency","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/nato-and-a-taiwan-contingency\/","title":{"rendered":"NATO and a Taiwan contingency"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

NDC Outlook 02-2024: NATO and a Taiwan contingency <\/em>, by James Lee1<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At a time of growing concern about the threat to Taiwan\u2019s security from the People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC), NATO has been increasingly concerned with developments in the Indo-Pacific.2<\/a><\/sup> A contingency over Taiwan would not only have a devastating impact on the global economy, but also have the potential to involve the United States in a direct conflict with a near-peer (and nuclear-armed) competitor.3<\/a><\/sup> US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has emphasized the connection \u2013 and indeed the interdependence \u2013 of security in Europe and security in the Indo-Pacific:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“We are also growing the connective tissue between US alliances in the Indo-Pacific and in Europe\u2026allies in the Indo- Pacific are staunch supporters of Ukraine, while allies in Europe are helping the United States support peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”4<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This paper outlines the scenarios under which a Taiwan contingency could affect the Alliance, both in the legal sense of a triggering action for Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and in the political sense of how the United States might ask for the support of its NATO Allies in a global campaign against Beijing. What is the scope for NATO to become involved in a Taiwan contingency under its existing commitments, and what might that involvement look like? The first section discusses the legal basis for NATO to act in a Taiwan contingency. The second section discusses the operational scenarios in which the United States and Taiwan could ask for NATO support, including a scenario-building exercise of how a conflict could begin. The concluding section discusses the policy implications of this analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n

\nT\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n

NDC Public Affairs Office<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

More Research Division Publications<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n
  1. Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of European and American Studies, Academia Sinica, Taiwan \u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li>
  2. Sara Bjerg Moller, \u201cNATO Is Entering a New Phase in the Indo-Pacific,\u201d Atlantic Council, 6 February 2023, https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/new-atlanticist\/nato-is-entering-a-new-phase- in-the-indo-pacific\/<\/a> \u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li>
  3. Taipei Times, \u201cChina Would Choose War if \u2018Peaceful Unifi cation\u2019 Impossible, US Offi cials Say,\u201d Taipei Times, 11 March 2023, https:\/\/www.taipeitimes.com\/News\/taiwan\/archives\/2023\/03\/11\/2003795923<\/a>
    \u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li>
  4. ake Sullivan, \u201cThe Sources of American Power: A Foreign Policy for a Changed World,\u201d Foreign Affairs<\/em>(November\/December 2023),https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/united-states\/sources-american-power-biden-jake-sullivan<\/a> \u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><\/ol>