{"id":2582,"date":"2024-03-22T11:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-22T10:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsite.ndc.nato.int\/?p=2582"},"modified":"2025-03-28T13:36:54","modified_gmt":"2025-03-28T12:36:54","slug":"what-if-12-dragon-king-scenarios-for-2028","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/what-if-12-dragon-king-scenarios-for-2028\/","title":{"rendered":"What if\u2026? 12 Dragon King scenarios for 2028"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-essential-blocks-row alignfull  root-eb-row-49mz1\"><div class=\"eb-parent-wrapper eb-parent-eb-row-49mz1\"><div class=\"eb-row-root-container eb-row-49mz1\" data-id=\"eb-row-49mz1\"><div class=\"eb-row-wrapper\"><div class=\"eb-row-inner\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\">NDC Insight 01-2024: <em>What if\u2026? 12 Dragon King scenarios for 2028<\/em>, edited by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/the-head-of-the-research-division\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Florence Gaub<\/a> <sup data-fn=\"4e9c81aa-b47a-4256-adce-ffafdb0d9320\" class=\"fn\"><a href=\"#4e9c81aa-b47a-4256-adce-ffafdb0d9320\" id=\"4e9c81aa-b47a-4256-adce-ffafdb0d9320-link\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full eplus-wrapper\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"775\" height=\"440\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2583\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2.webp 775w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2-300x170.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2-768x436.webp 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 775px) 100vw, 775px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading eplus-wrapper\">Introduction to The Dragon\u2019s King\u2019s edition<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\">Whenever something surprising happens, we have the urge to head to the foresight zoo. On the right we have the Black Swans<sup data-fn=\"b610afa2-377e-4e74-8313-6244cf061f2a\" class=\"fn\"><a href=\"#b610afa2-377e-4e74-8313-6244cf061f2a\" id=\"b610afa2-377e-4e74-8313-6244cf061f2a-link\">2<\/a><\/sup> \u2013 big events we couldn\u2019t even imagine to happen \u2013 and on the left are the Grey Rhinos<sup data-fn=\"b6ea2c3c-5c66-4f65-8b17-d6f233e406ce\" class=\"fn\"><a href=\"#b6ea2c3c-5c66-4f65-8b17-d6f233e406ce\" id=\"b6ea2c3c-5c66-4f65-8b17-d6f233e406ce-link\">3<\/a><\/sup> \u2013 big events we saw coming, but decided to ignore anyway. But one animal has gotten little attention: the Dragon King.<sup data-fn=\"2d5c67a1-6d39-442c-a10a-97e169ef0170\" class=\"fn\"><a href=\"#2d5c67a1-6d39-442c-a10a-97e169ef0170\" id=\"2d5c67a1-6d39-442c-a10a-97e169ef0170-link\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\">This is not some side character in Game of Thrones, but an event that is very unique (\u201ca dragon\u201d) and large in size or effect (a \u201cking\u201d). In contrast to the Black Swan, a Dragon King is imaginable and therefore to some, even if minor, extent, predictable. This makes the Dragon King a more operational, and therefore useful, concept than the Black Swan because a Dragon King surmises that surprise can be reduced if we use imagination, careful causal thinking, and of course, we monitor the area where we think it could materialize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n<div class='w3eden'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Link\/Button Popup -->\n<a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary btn-xs' rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/download\/what-if-12-dragon-king-scenarios-for-2028\/?wpdmdl=6298&refresh=6a5e34eb743b81784558827\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\">NDC Public Affairs Office<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-blockspare-blockspare-buttons blockspare-d211e934-65d9-4 blockspare-block-button-wrap\" blockspare-animation=\"\"><div class=\"blockspare-block-button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/research\/publications\/\" class=\"blockspare-button blockspare-button-shape-rounded blockspare-button-size-small hover-style-4\"><span>More Research Division Publications<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"is-style-dots wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity eplus-wrapper\"\/>\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-footnotes\"><li id=\"4e9c81aa-b47a-4256-adce-ffafdb0d9320\">Director of the Research Division at the NATO Defense College. <a href=\"#4e9c81aa-b47a-4256-adce-ffafdb0d9320-link\" aria-label=\"Aller \u00e0 la note de bas de page 1\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><li id=\"b610afa2-377e-4e74-8313-6244cf061f2a\">Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Random House Publishing Group: 2010). <a href=\"#b610afa2-377e-4e74-8313-6244cf061f2a-link\" aria-label=\"Aller \u00e0 la note de bas de page 2\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><li id=\"b6ea2c3c-5c66-4f65-8b17-d6f233e406ce\">Michele Wucker, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore (New York, St. Martin\u2019s Press: 2016). <a href=\"#b6ea2c3c-5c66-4f65-8b17-d6f233e406ce-link\" aria-label=\"Aller \u00e0 la note de bas de page 3\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><li id=\"2d5c67a1-6d39-442c-a10a-97e169ef0170\">Didier Sornette &amp; Guy Ouillon, \u201cDragon-Kings: Mechanisms, Statistical Methods and Empirical Evidence,\u201d The European Physical Journal, Special Topics, 205.1 (2012): 1\u201326. <a href=\"#2d5c67a1-6d39-442c-a10a-97e169ef0170-link\" aria-label=\"Aller \u00e0 la note de bas de page 4\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><\/ol><style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">.blockspare-d211e934-65d9-4 .blockspare-block-button{text-align:center;margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:30px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px}.blockspare-d211e934-65d9-4 .blockspare-block-button span{color:#0693e3;font-size:16px}.blockspare-d211e934-65d9-4 .blockspare-button{border-color:#0693e3;border-style:solid;border-width:2px}.blockspare-d211e934-65d9-4 .blockspare-block-button .blockspare-button{background-color:transparent}.blockspare-d211e934-65d9-4 .blockspare-block-button i{font-size:16px}.blockspare-d211e934-65d9-4 .blockspare-block-button a{padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px;padding-right:10px;padding-left:10px}@media screen and (max-width:1025px){.blockspare-d211e934-65d9-4 .blockspare-block-button span{font-size:14px}.blockspare-d211e934-65d9-4 .blockspare-block-button i{font-size:14px}}@media screen and (max-width:768px){.blockspare-d211e934-65d9-4 .blockspare-block-button span{font-size:14px}.blockspare-d211e934-65d9-4 .blockspare-block-button i{font-size:14px}}<\/style>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NDC Insight 01-2024: What if\u2026? 12 Dragon King scenarios for 2028, edited by Florence Gaub Introduction to The<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2583,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_plus_copied_stylings":"{}","_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":"[{\"content\":\"Director of the Research Division at the NATO Defense College.\",\"id\":\"4e9c81aa-b47a-4256-adce-ffafdb0d9320\"},{\"content\":\"Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Random House Publishing Group: 2010).\",\"id\":\"b610afa2-377e-4e74-8313-6244cf061f2a\"},{\"content\":\"Michele Wucker, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore (New York, St. Martin\u2019s Press: 2016).\",\"id\":\"b6ea2c3c-5c66-4f65-8b17-d6f233e406ce\"},{\"content\":\"Didier Sornette &amp; Guy Ouillon, \u201cDragon-Kings: Mechanisms, Statistical Methods and Empirical Evidence,\u201d The European Physical Journal, Special Topics, 205.1 (2012): 1\u201326.\",\"id\":\"2d5c67a1-6d39-442c-a10a-97e169ef0170\"}]"},"categories":[79,82],"tags":[],"post_badge":[],"class_list":["post-2582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publications","category-the-future-series"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2.webp","author_info":{"display_name":"Florence Gaub","author_link":""},"modified_by":"NDC","author_meta":{"display_name":"Florence Gaub","author_link":""},"featured_img":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2-300x170.webp","featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2.webp",775,440,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2-150x150.webp",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2-300x170.webp",300,170,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2-768x436.webp",640,363,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2.webp",640,363,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2.webp",775,440,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2.webp",775,440,false],"trp-custom-language-flag":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2.webp",18,10,false],"morenews-featured":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2.webp",775,440,false],"morenews-large":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2.webp",775,440,false],"morenews-medium":["https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Insight_2024-01_1_2-590x410.webp",590,410,true]},"category_info":"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Publications<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/the-future-series\/\" rel=\"category tag\">The Future Series<\/a>","tag_info":"The Future Series","comment_count":0,"coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Publications<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/the-future-series\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">The Future Series<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Publications<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">The Future Series<\/span>"]}},"relative_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 2 ans il y a","modified":"Mis \u00e0 jour 1 an il y a"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 le mars 22, 2024","modified":"Mise \u00e0 jour le mars 28, 2025"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 le mars 22, 2024 11:45","modified":"Mise \u00e0 jour le mars 28, 2025 13:36"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2582","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2582"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2582\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8297,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2582\/revisions\/8297"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2583"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2582"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2582"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2582"},{"taxonomy":"post_badge","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_badge?post=2582"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}