{"id":2588,"date":"2024-03-12T11:51:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-12T10:51:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsite.ndc.nato.int\/?p=2588"},"modified":"2025-03-28T13:13:14","modified_gmt":"2025-03-28T12:13:14","slug":"the-history-of-chinas-future-lessons-from-the-cia-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/the-history-of-chinas-future-lessons-from-the-cia-2\/","title":{"rendered":"The history of China\u2019s future &#8211; Lessons from the CIA"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-essential-blocks-row alignfull  root-eb-row-49mz1\"><div class=\"eb-parent-wrapper eb-parent-eb-row-49mz1\"><div class=\"eb-row-root-container eb-row-49mz1\" data-id=\"eb-row-49mz1\"><div class=\"eb-row-wrapper\"><div class=\"eb-row-inner\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\">NDC Outlook 01-2024: <em>The history of China\u2019s future &#8211; Lessons from the CIA<\/em>, by Dylan Levi King <sup data-fn=\"9b13d3b2-d2d9-44df-beb0-67c3651e8467\" class=\"fn\"><a href=\"#9b13d3b2-d2d9-44df-beb0-67c3651e8467\" id=\"9b13d3b2-d2d9-44df-beb0-67c3651e8467-link\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full eplus-wrapper\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"775\" height=\"440\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Outlook_24-01_2-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2589\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Outlook_24-01_2-1.jpg 775w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Outlook_24-01_2-1-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Outlook_24-01_2-1-768x436.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 775px) 100vw, 775px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list eplus-wrapper eplus-styles-uid-e0ca11\">\n<li class=\"eplus-wrapper\">Getting China\u2019s future wrong is getting the world\u2019s future wrong.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"eplus-wrapper\">China forecasts are currently marred by emotion and bias.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"eplus-wrapper\">The CIA\u2019s 1973 China forecasts provide a useful insight on how to change this.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"eplus-wrapper\">The main lesson is to stay away from extreme scenarios and maintain analytical independence and unwillingness to indulge in extreme scenarios.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n<div class='w3eden'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Link\/Button Popup -->\n<a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary btn-xs' rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/download\/the-history-of-chinas-future-lessons-from-the-cia\/?wpdmdl=2044&refresh=6a5c4a315e4cc1784433201\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\">NDC Public Affairs Office<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-blockspare-blockspare-buttons blockspare-689c3e78-63ba-4 blockspare-block-button-wrap\" blockspare-animation=\"\"><div class=\"blockspare-block-button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/research\/publications\/\" class=\"blockspare-button blockspare-button-shape-rounded blockspare-button-size-small hover-style-4\"><span>More Research Division Publications<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"is-style-dots wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity eplus-wrapper\"\/>\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-footnotes\"><li id=\"9b13d3b2-d2d9-44df-beb0-67c3651e8467\">Freelance writer and translator <a href=\"#9b13d3b2-d2d9-44df-beb0-67c3651e8467-link\" aria-label=\"Aller \u00e0 la note de bas de page 1\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">.blockspare-689c3e78-63ba-4 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i{font-size:14px}}<\/style>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NDC Outlook 01-2024: The history of China\u2019s future &#8211; Lessons from the CIA, by Dylan Levi King 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href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Publications<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/the-hindsight-series\/\" rel=\"category tag\">The Hindsight Series<\/a>","tag_info":"The Hindsight Series","comment_count":0,"coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Publications<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/the-hindsight-series\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">The Hindsight Series<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Publications<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">The Hindsight Series<\/span>"]}},"relative_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 2 ans il y a","modified":"Mis \u00e0 jour 1 an il y a"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Publi\u00e9 le mars 12, 2024","modified":"Mise \u00e0 jour le mars 28, 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