{"id":3659,"date":"2024-10-25T13:52:42","date_gmt":"2024-10-25T12:52:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsite.ndc.nato.int\/?p=3659"},"modified":"2025-03-28T13:18:30","modified_gmt":"2025-03-28T12:18:30","slug":"inequality-kills-on-russian-combat-ineffectiveness-in-ukraine-and-beyond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/inequality-kills-on-russian-combat-ineffectiveness-in-ukraine-and-beyond\/","title":{"rendered":"Inequality kills: on Russian combat ineffectiveness in Ukraine and beyond"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-essential-blocks-row alignfull  root-eb-row-49mz1\"><div class=\"eb-parent-wrapper eb-parent-eb-row-49mz1\"><div class=\"eb-row-root-container eb-row-49mz1\" data-id=\"eb-row-49mz1\"><div class=\"eb-row-wrapper\"><div class=\"eb-row-inner\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\">NDC Outlook 06-2024: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/download\/inequality-kills-on-russian-combat-ineffectiveness-in-ukraine-and-beyond\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Inequality kills: on Russian combat ineffectiveness in Ukraine and beyond<\/a><\/em>, by Ulrich Pilster <sup data-fn=\"e1edc1d8-b071-4fae-81c2-132989e28e44\" class=\"fn\"><a href=\"#e1edc1d8-b071-4fae-81c2-132989e28e44\" id=\"e1edc1d8-b071-4fae-81c2-132989e28e44-link\">1<\/a><\/sup> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/about\/organization.php\/?icode=200\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Olesya Vinhas de Souza<\/a> <sup data-fn=\"7632748b-e424-44bc-b11a-996ec3d7c576\" class=\"fn\"><a href=\"#7632748b-e424-44bc-b11a-996ec3d7c576\" id=\"7632748b-e424-44bc-b11a-996ec3d7c576-link\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full eplus-wrapper\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"775\" height=\"440\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/outlook_2024-06_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3663\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/outlook_2024-06_2.jpg 775w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/outlook_2024-06_2-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/outlook_2024-06_2-768x436.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 775px) 100vw, 775px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list eplus-wrapper eplus-styles-uid-1c2dd1\">\n<li class=\"eplus-wrapper\">What would Russia\u2019s military strategy be in a war with NATO? Before 2022, many analysts worried about the scenario in which Russia, leveraging a tactically proficient and well-coordinated combined arms force, could swiftly overrun the Baltics in a matter of days. Drawing on a statistical analysis of historical battles and an examination of Russian force structure and equipment losses in Ukraine, we challenge this view.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"eplus-wrapper\">Endemic inequality within the Russian Armed Forces will continue to impede their adoption of the sophisticated tactics necessary for manoeuvre warfare. Therefore, we anticipate that a future potential Russian attack would resemble a war of attrition. Unable to quickly out-manoeuvre NATO forces, Moscow would aim to deploy overwhelming fi repower and manpower against Allied troops and civilian populations, with an aim to inflict widespread and sustained destruction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\">NDC Public Affairs Office<\/p>\n\n\n<div class='w3eden'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Link\/Button Popup -->\n<a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary btn-xs' rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/download\/inequality-kills-on-russian-combat-ineffectiveness-in-ukraine-and-beyond\/?wpdmdl=3662&refresh=6a5c463d188551784432189\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-blockspare-blockspare-buttons blockspare-49431c89-c7e2-4 blockspare-block-button-wrap\" blockspare-animation=\"\"><div class=\"blockspare-block-button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/research\/publications\/\" class=\"blockspare-button blockspare-button-shape-rounded blockspare-button-size-small hover-style-4\"><span>More Research Division Publications<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-footnotes\"><li id=\"e1edc1d8-b071-4fae-81c2-132989e28e44\">PhD, NATO International Staff, Brussels, and University of Essex, Colchester, pilster.ulrich@hq.nato.int <a href=\"#e1edc1d8-b071-4fae-81c2-132989e28e44-link\" aria-label=\"Aller \u00e0 la note de bas de page 1\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><li id=\"7632748b-e424-44bc-b11a-996ec3d7c576\">PhD, Research Division, NATO Defense College, Rome, ORCID: 0000-0003- 2234-8465, o.vinhasdesouza@ndc.nato.int <a href=\"#7632748b-e424-44bc-b11a-996ec3d7c576-link\" aria-label=\"Aller \u00e0 la note de bas de page 2\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">.blockspare-49431c89-c7e2-4 .blockspare-block-button{text-align:center;margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:30px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px}.blockspare-49431c89-c7e2-4 .blockspare-block-button span{color:#0693e3;font-size:16px}.blockspare-49431c89-c7e2-4 .blockspare-button{border-color:#0693e3;border-style:solid;border-width:2px}.blockspare-49431c89-c7e2-4 .blockspare-block-button .blockspare-button{background-color:transparent}.blockspare-49431c89-c7e2-4 .blockspare-block-button i{font-size:16px}.blockspare-49431c89-c7e2-4 .blockspare-block-button a{padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px;padding-right:10px;padding-left:10px}@media screen and (max-width:1025px){.blockspare-49431c89-c7e2-4 .blockspare-block-button span{font-size:14px}.blockspare-49431c89-c7e2-4 .blockspare-block-button i{font-size:14px}}@media screen and (max-width:768px){.blockspare-49431c89-c7e2-4 .blockspare-block-button 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Olesya<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3663,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_plus_copied_stylings":"{}","_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":"[{\"content\":\"PhD, NATO International Staff, Brussels, and University of Essex, Colchester, pilster.ulrich@hq.nato.int\",\"id\":\"e1edc1d8-b071-4fae-81c2-132989e28e44\"},{\"content\":\"PhD, Research Division, NATO Defense College, Rome, ORCID: 0000-0003- 2234-8465, o.vinhasdesouza@ndc.nato.int\",\"id\":\"7632748b-e424-44bc-b11a-996ec3d7c576\"}]"},"categories":[3,79,80],"tags":[],"post_badge":[],"class_list":["post-3659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-publications","category-the-war-series"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/outlook_2024-06_2.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Ulrich Pilster and Olesya Vinhas de Souza","author_link":""},"modified_by":"NDC","author_meta":{"display_name":"Ulrich Pilster and Olesya Vinhas de 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href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/news\/\" rel=\"category tag\">News<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Publications<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/the-war-series\/\" rel=\"category tag\">The War Series<\/a>","tag_info":"The War Series","comment_count":0,"coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/news\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">News<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Publications<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/the-war-series\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">The War Series<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">News<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Publications<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">The War 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13:18"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3659"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3659\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8283,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3659\/revisions\/8283"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3663"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3659"},{"taxonomy":"post_badge","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_badge?post=3659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}