{"id":8449,"date":"2025-05-05T09:29:23","date_gmt":"2025-05-05T08:29:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsite.ndc.nato.int\/?p=8449"},"modified":"2025-05-06T09:52:09","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T08:52:09","slug":"how-accurate-is-forecasting-of-military-technologies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/how-accurate-is-forecasting-of-military-technologies\/","title":{"rendered":"How accurate is forecasting of military technologies?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-essential-blocks-row alignfull  root-eb-row-49mz1\"><div class=\"eb-parent-wrapper eb-parent-eb-row-49mz1\"><div class=\"eb-row-root-container eb-row-49mz1\" data-id=\"eb-row-49mz1\"><div class=\"eb-row-wrapper\"><div class=\"eb-row-inner\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\">NDC Outlook 06-2025, by Alexander Kott and Philip Perconti<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/news\/news.php\/?icode=1987#_edn0\"><\/a><sup data-fn=\"791a29cf-f154-47cc-b6d3-a688ed50fea2\" class=\"fn\"><a href=\"#791a29cf-f154-47cc-b6d3-a688ed50fea2\" id=\"791a29cf-f154-47cc-b6d3-a688ed50fea2-link\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"775\" height=\"440\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/outlook_2025-06_2.jpg\" alt=\"NDC Outlook 06-2025: How accurate is forecasting of military technologies? , by Alexander Kott and Philip Perconti\" class=\"wp-image-8450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/outlook_2025-06_2.jpg 775w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/outlook_2025-06_2-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/outlook_2025-06_2-768x436.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/outlook_2025-06_2-18x10.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 775px) 100vw, 775px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-list eplus-styles-uid-b2de1f\">\n<li class=\"eplus-wrapper\">We show that the accuracy of military technology forecasts is respectably high, 76% or better, depending on how an accurate forecast is defined.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"eplus-wrapper\">Long-term technology forecasting can be quite accurate and can inform NATO\u2019s military research and development management decisions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<div class='w3eden'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Default Template -->\n\n<div class=\"link-template-default card mb-2\">\n    <div class=\"card-body\">\n        <div class=\"media\">\n            <div class=\"mr-3 img-48\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpdm_icon\" alt=\"Ic\u00f4ne\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/hindsight150.png\" \/><\/div>\n            <div class=\"media-body\">\n                <h3 class=\"package-title\"><a href='https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/download\/how-accurate-is-forecasting-of-military-technologies\/'>How accurate is forecasting of military technologies?<\/a><\/h3>\n                <div class=\"text-muted text-small\"><i class=\"fas fa-copy\"><\/i> 1 fichier\u00b7s <i class=\"fas fa-hdd ml-3\"><\/i> 19.07 MB<\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ml-3\">\n                <a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary btn-xs' rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/download\/how-accurate-is-forecasting-of-military-technologies\/?wpdmdl=8447&refresh=6a5c0c08706b41784417288\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\">NDC Public Affairs Office<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-blockspare-blockspare-buttons blockspare-961d932a-ebce-4 blockspare-block-button-wrap\" blockspare-animation=\"\"><div class=\"blockspare-block-button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/research\/publications\/\" class=\"blockspare-button blockspare-button-shape-rounded blockspare-button-size-small hover-style-4\"><span>More Research Division Publications<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"is-style-dots eplus-wrapper wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-footnotes\"><li id=\"791a29cf-f154-47cc-b6d3-a688ed50fea2\">&#8211; Alexander Kott is an Independent Consultant &#8211; Former Chief Scientist of the U.S. Army Research Laboratory<br>&#8211; Philip Perconti is Senior Vice President, CTO, Leonardo DRS &#8211; Former Director of the U.S. Army Research Laboratory <a href=\"#791a29cf-f154-47cc-b6d3-a688ed50fea2-link\" aria-label=\"Aller \u00e0 la note de bas de page 1\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n<p class=\"eplus-wrapper wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">.blockspare-961d932a-ebce-4 .blockspare-block-button{text-align:center;margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:30px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px}.blockspare-961d932a-ebce-4 .blockspare-block-button span{color:#0693e3;font-size:16px}.blockspare-961d932a-ebce-4 .blockspare-button{border-color:#0693e3;border-style:solid;border-width:2px}.blockspare-961d932a-ebce-4 .blockspare-block-button .blockspare-button{background-color:transparent}.blockspare-961d932a-ebce-4 .blockspare-block-button i{font-size:16px}.blockspare-961d932a-ebce-4 .blockspare-block-button a{padding-top:12px;padding-bottom:12px;padding-right:10px;padding-left:10px}@media screen and (max-width:1025px){.blockspare-961d932a-ebce-4 .blockspare-block-button span{font-size:14px}.blockspare-961d932a-ebce-4 .blockspare-block-button i{font-size:14px}}@media 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Office<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":8450,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_plus_copied_stylings":"{}","_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":"[{\"content\":\"- Alexander Kott is an Independent Consultant - Former Chief Scientist of the U.S. Army Research Laboratory<br>- Philip Perconti is Senior Vice President, CTO, Leonardo DRS - Former Director of the U.S. Army Research Laboratory\",\"id\":\"791a29cf-f154-47cc-b6d3-a688ed50fea2\"}]"},"categories":[3,79,83],"tags":[],"post_badge":[],"class_list":["post-8449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-publications","category-the-hindsight-series"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/outlook_2025-06_2.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Bruno Tertrais","author_link":""},"modified_by":"NDC Public Affairs Office","author_meta":{"display_name":"Bruno 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href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/news\/\" rel=\"category tag\">News<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Publications<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/the-hindsight-series\/\" rel=\"category tag\">The Hindsight Series<\/a>","tag_info":"The Hindsight Series","comment_count":0,"coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/news\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">News<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Publications<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/category\/publications\/the-hindsight-series\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">The Hindsight Series<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">News<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Publications<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">The Hindsight 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09:52"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8449","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8449"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8449\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8459,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8449\/revisions\/8459"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8449"},{"taxonomy":"post_badge","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ndc.nato.int\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_badge?post=8449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}