The history of China’s future - Lessons from the CIA
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- NDC Outlook 01-2024: The history of China’s future - Lessons from the CIA, by Dylan Levi King *
Summary
- Getting China’s future wrong is getting the world’s future wrong.
- China forecasts are currently marred by emotion and bias.
- The CIA’s 1973 China forecasts provide a useful insight on how to change this.
- The main lesson is to stay away from extreme scenarios and maintain analytical independence and unwillingness to indulge in extreme scenarios.
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* (back) Freelance writer and translator