New Research Division Publication: Research Paper 83

• Research Paper 83: “NATO in the Gulf: Partnership Without a Cause?”, by Jean-Loup Samaan.

Eight years after NATO initiated its engagement with the Gulf countries, the results have been modest, not to say disappointing. The Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI) is today experiencing the same problems it faced when it was launched in 2004. The criticisms expressed by stakeholders, such as the absence of a comprehensive and truly regional approach or the lack of consistency in the political and military agenda, are thus in line with the initial lukewarm assessments.

This failure is paradoxical, even troubling, when one considers the genuine strategic relevance of the Gulf. Indeed, the region is (and for the near future is likely to remain) a critical region for NATO. It encapsulates all the major security challenges the Alliance aims to tackle: maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz; the risks of proliferation of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, with the associated conundrum of present-day Iran; and state failure, in the case of Yemen compounded by the terrorism it spawns. In addition, given the current financial austerity in NATO countries, the partnership approach increasingly appears the most appropriate way to share the burden between Allies and local partners, thus creating a pragmatic division of labour. Taking into consideration all these elements, how can one explain the underachievement of the ICI? Moving forward, how could NATO overcome the existing obstacles and revamp the partnership to address future security challenges?

The new Research Paper from the NATO Defense College addresses these questions by shedding light on the current and emerging strategic trends which shape the security system in the Gulf. It then focuses on some of the lessons learned from eight years of the ICI. Finally, it suggests an agenda for future cooperation.

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