New Research Division Publication

• Conference Report: “The NATO Mission in Afghanistan Post-2014: The Transformation Decade”, by the NDC Research Division.

About 28 months from now all major NATO combat forces will be withdrawn from Afghanistan. The key question is thus how to ensure stability in Afghanistan in the post-2014 period. In June 2012, the NATO Defense College organized a meeting of high-level experts to assess the prospects for Afghanistan after 2014. Some key findings were:

Progress in Afghanistan is possible and can be affordable, even in a period of economic downturn. The Taliban will have to face major challenges in their attempt to defeat the government of Afghanistan – unless NATO and the international community leave prematurely or fail to provide the proper resources. There are, however, no clear plans as yet for either the civil or military side of Transition, no funding profiles, and no clear sources for the required funds.

Political and economic transition in Afghanistan in 2014 is as important as security transition. NATO and its partners can support the election process by working to identify, report, and when necessary position resources and forces to promote legitimate and representative elections.

The end of the ISAF mission is not the end of NATO’s involvement in Afghanistan. The withdrawal of major combat forces by the end of 2014 will signal a change of mission for NATO, most likely to a scaled-down NATO Training Mission focused at the national level. A NATO Senior Civilian Representative (SCR) with staff should remain to support and facilitate a Comprehensive Approach. An enduring US-led coalition focused on Counter Terror (CT) operations will remain in Afghanistan, operating outside the Alliance structure.

Comprehensive reconciliation is unlikely, with so many disparate insurgent groups operating under the name of the Taliban or as largely independent groups.

The U.S. commitment will likely determine the level of NATO and civil aid commitment. Continued political, economic and military support for Afghanistan by the U.S., though clearly at reduced levels, will be necessary to create any realistic hope of proportional contributions from other NATO members and partner nations.

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