NDC Outlook 09-2026, Strategy Series, by Nikki Ikani1
Summary
Intelligence warning failures are too often viewed in binary: Either intelligence succeeded or it failed. In reality, often only segments of the warning chain collapse while others operate well.
This Outlook paper treats warning success as a spectrum rather than as a pass/fail test in a new framework for warning performance. It illustrates the use through three recent case studies: the fall of Kabul (2021), Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2022) and the Niger coup (2023).
The decisive shortfall across all three cases was the failure to reconcile divergent NATO member state views into an operational consensus within NATO.
There are practical solutions for integrating NATO capabilities to institutionalize rapid after-action reviews, conduct periodic divergence drill exercises, prepare contingency packages and further embed red team analyses.
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Nikki Ikani
NDC Senior Non-Resident Associate Fellow, Assistant Professor in Intelligence and Security at Leiden University, Visiting Research Fellow at King’s College London 1↩︎
Collège de Défense de l'OTAN