Inequality kills: on Russian combat ineffectiveness in Ukraine and beyond

NDC Outlook 06-2024: Inequality kills: on Russian combat ineffectiveness in Ukraine and beyond, by Ulrich Pilster ¹ and Olesya Vinhas de Souza ²

Summary

• What would Russia’s military strategy be in a war with NATO? Before 2022, many analysts worried about the scenario in which Russia, leveraging a tactically proficient and well-coordinated combined arms force, could swiftly overrun the Baltics in a matter of days. Drawing on a statistical analysis of historical battles and an examination of Russian force structure and equipment losses in Ukraine, we challenge this view.
• Endemic inequality within the Russian Armed Forces will continue to impede their adoption of the sophisticated tactics necessary for manoeuvre warfare. Therefore, we anticipate that a future potential Russian attack would resemble a war of attrition. Unable to quickly out-manoeuvre NATO forces, Moscow would aim to deploy overwhelming fi repower and manpower against Allied troops and civilian populations, with an aim to inflict widespread and sustained destruction.

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1. PhD, NATO International Staff, Brussels, and University of Essex, Colchester, [email protected] ↩︎
2. PhD, Research Division, NATO Defense College, Rome, ORCID: 0000-0003- 2234-8465, [email protected] ↩︎