The Iran nuclear deal: consequences of moribund diplomacy

• NDC Policy Brief 03-2023: The Iran nuclear deal: consequences of moribund diplomacy, by Mark Fitzpatrick*

On 4 November 2022, United States President
Joe Biden privately remarked that the 2015
Iran nuclear accord known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was “dead”, but
that the US would not formally say so.1
US working-level officials insist a return to the deal remains
possible, but efforts to revive it are increasingly
fraught. For months, Iran’s leaders have appeared
uninterested in complying with the deal, instead
conditioning their country’s return on unrealistic demands that the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) cease investigation into signs of Iran’s past
nuclear weapons development. Since mid-September
2022, Western attention has been distracted by other aspects of Tehran’s foreign and domestic policy,
including the regime’s brutal crackdown of domestic
protests against female veiling rules, its complicity in
Russian drone attacks in Ukraine, and its dubious detention of US and European citizens. With political
room for a diplomatic solution rapidly evaporating,
and Iran’s “breakout period” for producing weapons-grade highly enriched uranium (HEU) shortened
to a few days, NATO member states must anticipate
that states like Israel could opt for a kinetic “Plan B”
solution to Iran’s nuclear programme, with potential
negative spill-over. With escalation likely before a
UN ban on missile trade with Iran expires in October 2023, concerned states should intensify pursuit of
peaceful alternatives.

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