A renewed collective defense bargain? NATO in COVID’s shadow

• NDC Policy Brief 16-20: A renewed collective defense bargain? NATO in COVID’s shadow, by Sten Rynning*

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed a tectonic shift in world politics: China’s rise and an erosion, if not a decline, of Western power. Where Western Allies squabble, China acts with confidence. NATO’s timorous decision of December 2019 to discuss China’s “growing influence” now seems quaint one year on, or at best a preamble to the preeminent question of our era: is NATO sufficiently cohesive to confront change?

NATO has rightly responded to COVID-19 by deepening certain policy competencies in hybrid warfare and societal resilience.1 However, policy cannot rescue NATO; only politics can. Worryingly, COVID-19 has magnified political fractures within an Alliance that has struggled for visibility.2 The Allies have clashed on travel restrictions, medical supplies and vaccines. The G7 Summit, an ostensibly ideal forum for advancing strategic thinking among liberal powers, failed to take place over the summer because of a disagreement over how to sanction China for encroaching on Hong Kong’s autonomy. Subsequently, a US decision to weaken its military footprint in Europe aroused anxiety on the US commitment to NATO;3 intense conflicts of interests in the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey, Greece, France, and Italy belied their status as close Allies; and within the United Nations Security Council, the Allies were unable to coordinate any meaningful approach on Iran sanctions.