-
NDC Insight 01-2024: What if…? 12 Dragon King scenarios
for 2028, edited by Florence Gaub *
Introduction to The
Dragon’s King’s edition
Whenever something
surprising happens, we
have the urge to head to
the foresight zoo. On the right we
have the Black Swans1 – big events
we couldn’t even imagine to happen
– and on the left are the Grey Rhinos2 – big events we saw coming, but
decided to ignore anyway. But one
animal has gotten little attention: the
Dragon King.3
This is not some side character in
Game of Thrones, but an event that
is very unique (“a dragon”) and large
in size or effect (a “king”). In contrast
to the Black Swan, a Dragon King
is imaginable and therefore to some,
even if minor, extent, predictable.
This makes the Dragon King a more
operational, and therefore useful,
concept than the Black Swan because
a Dragon King surmises that surprise
can be reduced if we use imagination,
careful causal thinking, and of course,
we monitor the area where we think it
could materialize.
Download the publication to keep reading.
Director of the Research Division at the NATO Defense College
Evidence,” The European Physical Journal, Special Topics, 205.1 (2012): 1–26.
More Research Division Publications…
NDC Public Affairs Office
NATO Defense College