NATO and a Taiwan contingency

• NDC Outlook 02-2024: NATO and a Taiwan contingency , by James Lee *

At a time of growing concern about the threat to Taiwan’s security from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), NATO has been increasingly concerned with developments in the Indo-Pacific.1
A contingency over Taiwan would not only have a devastating impact on the global economy, but also have the potential to involve the United States in a direct conflict with a near-peer (and nuclear-armed) competitor.2
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has emphasized the connection – and indeed the interdependence – of
security in Europe and security in the Indo-Pacific:

“We are also growing the connective tissue between US alliances in the Indo-Pacific and in Europe…allies in the Indo- Pacific are staunch supporters of Ukraine, while allies in Europe are helping the United States support peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” 3

This paper outlines the scenarios under which a Taiwan contingency could affect the Alliance, both in the legal sense of a triggering action for Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and in the political sense of how the United States might ask for the support of its NATO Allies in a global campaign against Beijing. What is the scope for NATO to become involved in a Taiwan contingency under its existing commitments, and what might that involvement look like? The first section discusses the legal basis for NATO to act in a Taiwan contingency. The second section discusses the operational scenarios in which the United States and Taiwan could ask for NATO support, including a scenario-building exercise of how a conflict could begin. The concluding section discusses the policy
implications of this analysis.

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