During the periods 23-25 June and 28 June-2 July 2010, Senior Course 116 continued its in-depth studies of the important geographical regions within and beyond the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) territory from a general global perspective as well as from the NATO point of view. Particular emphasis was placed on their impact on regional (and global) stability or instability and what this means for the Alliance. During the academic programme, a series of visiting experts offered their thoughts on the Middle East, South, North-East and Central Asia, and the Caucasus.
The Study Period commenced with a lecture on “The Caucasus”, delivered by Mr Vladimir SOCOR of the Jamestown Foundation, Washington. His lecture focused particularly on Western involvement and interests in the region, especially those related to transit of energy supplies, and on current developments in and prospects for the various territorial conflicts in the region.
The Study Period Academic Curriculum continued with a lecture provided by Dr Shirin Akiner, former professor of Central Asian Studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies of the University of London, and at present fellow of the Cambridge Central Asia Forum, University of Cambridge. She discussed facts and figures for the five Central Asian states, putting into perspective differences and commonalities as well as challenges ahead. Today there is a risk of further deterioration in both the economic and security climate in Central Asia and the growth of militant political and religious groups. Future unrest could have a huge impact on the wider region. Dr Akiner’s lecture greatly enhanced Course Members’ understanding of the region.
Two of the Study Period lectures were devoted to the Middle East. Visiting lecturers were Prof.George Joffé from Great Britain, Prof. Mazin Quimsiyeh, a USA citizen of Palestinian origin, and Mr Yossi Mekelberg, an Israeli/British citizen. The Middle East is an area of global strategic importance that faces huge challenges, including modernization and reform, the development of basic democratic and human rights, education and literacy, the reduction of poverty and an upsurge of Islamic radicalism. The first lecturer, Prof. Joffé, profoundly analyzed the Iranian crisis, the situation in Iraq and the status of other regional actors, and concluded with a synthesis of the future security challenges in the region. Prof. Quimsiyeh and Mr Mekelberg examined more closely one of the most enduring and explosive of all the world’s conflicts – the ongoing tragic conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, helping the audience to understand the wide range of issues that underlie the conflict.
Both lectures on China and North East Asia were delivered by Dr James Boutillier, special adviser to the Canadian Maritime Forces and an “Honorary Ancien” of the NDC. He examined why the region is increasingly important and considered the changing political geometry of the area, the rise of China and the relationship between Beijing and Washington. The rise of China is a phenomenon that can be considered either an opportunity or a challenge. North East Asia can no longer be seen as a distant realm: developments there impinge on the West in every way and therefore should be observed closely. The relationship between North and South Korea remains an unresolved legacy of the Cold War. Since their division, South Korea has developed into one of Asia’s most affluent countries, but the North has slipped into starvation and poverty, while maintaining a huge military and claiming the legitimacy of nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, Japan has seriously reviewed its current security policy, largely driven by the perceived military threat from North Korea, and is reviewing its so-called “peace constitution”, allowing for greater flexibility in the deployment and use of its military forces. Dr Boutilier’s lectures always give Course Members profound insight into the subject matter and an understanding of the region and beyond.
The lecture on “South Asia: India” was delivered by Dr Harsh V. Pant. He is part of the academic staff of the Defence Studies Department, King’s College London. During the last decade India has continued to emerge as a major power and has experienced remarkable economic development. India plays a key security role in South Asia. Dr Pant provided a strategic and security profile of Southern Asia and discussed its implications for India. The Senior Course was impressed by Dr Pant’s knowledge of the regional geopolitics.
The lecture on South Asia, covering Pakistan and Afghanistan, was given by Dr Samina Ahmed, Project Director for South Asia at the International Crisis Group, Islamabad, Pakistan. Within the region, sources of instability include bitter inter-state and intra-state conflict, nuclear and missile proliferation, terrorism, religious extremism, separatism, demographic pressures and drugs. In her view, Pakistan is close to the brink and the international community should be concerned by the internal tensions in Pakistan that could arise from future developments and the security situation in Afghanistan. Dr Ahmed gave a profound analysis of the state of affairs in Afghanistan. The topic discussed is of great concern to NATO and triggered high-level interaction between the Course Members and the lecturer.
At the conclusion of the very successful Study Period D1 and as part of the “consolidation” process, each Senior Course Committee was tasked to produce a short paper on the five regions considered to be potentially the greatest threats of future instability that could even escalate into a conflict. These papers listed the regions in priority order and included a short analysis of why the Committee came to their conclusions, why NATO should be concerned and what action the Alliance might take to promote peace and stability in the regions covered.
Overall, it was a highly rewarding week, with plenty of thought-provoking and stimulating lectures which offered an introduction to some of the important issues in the regions discussed. The NATO Defense College and the Senior Course Members were privileged to be addressed by a variety of high level experts. It was an excellent opportunity not only to improve understanding of the regions examined but also to consider contemporary security issues in an era of global interdependence.
NDC Public Affairs Office
(Prepared by Col. Daria DANIELS ŠKODNIK, SVN A)
Collège de Défense de l'OTAN