Inequality kills: on Russian combat ineffectiveness in Ukraine and beyond
- English
- Français
- NDC Outlook 06-2024: Inequality kills: on Russian combat ineffectiveness in Ukraine and beyond, by Ulrich Pilster1 and Olesya Vinhas de Souza 2

Summary
- What would Russia’s military strategy be in a war with NATO? Before 2022, many analysts worried about the scenario in which Russia, leveraging a tactically proficient and well-coordinated combined arms force, could swiftly overrun the Baltics in a matter of days. Drawing on a statistical analysis of historical battles and an examination of Russian force structure and equipment losses in Ukraine, we challenge this view.
- Endemic inequality within the Russian Armed Forces will continue to impede their adoption of the sophisticated tactics necessary for manoeuvre warfare. Therefore, we anticipate that a future potential Russian attack would resemble a war of attrition. Unable to quickly out-manoeuvre NATO forces, Moscow would aim to deploy overwhelming fi repower and manpower against Allied troops and civilian populations, with an aim to inflict widespread and sustained destruction.
Download the publication to keep reading.
1 (back) PhD, NATO International Staff, Brussels, and University of Essex, Colchester, [email protected]
2 (back) PhD, Research Division, NATO Defense College, Rome, ORCID: 0000-0003- 2234-8465, [email protected]