NDC Outlook 05-2026, Future Series, by Andrew Monaghan 1
Summary
- Russia’s vision of “tomorrow’s war” differs sharply from NATO’s. Moscow envisions not a localized conflict in north-eastern Europe but a large-scale global confrontation with geoeconomic roots with the United States as the primary driver of instability.
- Russia’s core scenario is a U.S.-led “21st century blitzkrieg”: waves of missile strikes coordinated with highly mobile, multi-domain forces, with particular emphasis on maritime threats.
- Russia is preparing for full mobilization warfare, modernizing its nuclear triad, reconstituting large ground formations and tightly integrating the armed forces into the state’s socioeconomic fabric.
- Doctrinal innovation remains limited despite Ukraine. Adaptations are tactical, not strategic — formal doctrine is unchanged
NDC Senior Non-Resident Associate Fellow 1↩︎
NDC Public Affairs Office
NATO Defense College