Study Period E – II: NATO’s worldwide geo-political Interests

Study Period E – Regional Issues, Part Two: NATO’s worldwide geo-political Interests, focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

During the period 19 – 20 December 2011 and 9 – 13 January 2012, the Senior Course 119 continued its in-depth study of major geographical regions within and beyond the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) territory, from a general global perspective as well as from the NATO point of view. Particular emphasis was placed on regional (and global) stability or instability, and what this meant for the Alliance. During the academic programme, a series of visiting experts offered their thoughts on Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Central, North-East and South Asia.

The second part of SP E started with a session on Sub-Saharan Africa, the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. Two qualified panellists, Dr. Greg Mills from South Africa, Head of the Brenthurst Foundation, and Dr. Mahmoud Mohamedou, a Mauritanian and US citizen, Associate Fellow and Visiting Professor at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, discussed the complex challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa and, indirectly, the Alliance. Violence, political turmoil and uncertainty are rife in many parts of the continent, compounding the problems of inequality, food insecurity, climate change and lack of jobs for the young. The two speakers offered a comprehensive analysis not only of the continent’s enormous potential, but especially of the risks in the years ahead, arising from the variety of issues and challenges that have to be addressed by the international community and by the peoples of the African continent.

Two of the Study Period sessions were devoted to the Middle East. The visiting lecturers were Prof. George Joffé from Great Britain, Prof. Mazin Quimsiyeh, a US citizen of Palestinian origin, and Mr Yossi Mekelberg, an Israeli/British citizen. The Middle East is an area of global strategic importance that faces huge challenges, including modernization and reform, the development of basic democratic and human rights, education and literacy, the reduction of poverty and the need to manage an upsurge of Islamic radicalism. It was interesting to discuss the likely outcome in the light of the Middle East and North African protest movements calling for political reforms. Against this background Prof. Joffé offered an in-depth analysis of present and future security issues and challenges in the region, focusing on Iran, Iraq and the Gulf. Prof. Quimsiyeh and Prof. Mekelberg examined one of the longest-lasting and at the same time most explosive of all the world’s conflicts in more detail, the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians, helping the audience to understand the wide range of underlying issues.

Dr. Shirin Akiner, of the University of London and an “Honorary Ancien” of the NDC, provided Course Members with a detailed analysis of the five Central Asian states, putting into perspective the differences and the commonalities as well as the challenges ahead. She assessed the risk of further deterioration in the economic and security climate in Central Asia and her lecture greatly enhanced the Course Members’ understanding of the region and triggered a lively discussion.

The world’s centre of gravity is shifting from the Atlantic to the Asia – Pacific region. The lecture focusing on China, North East Asia, Japan and the Koreas was delivered by Dr. James Boutillier, special adviser to the Canadian Maritime Forces and an “Honorary Ancien” of the NDC. He explained why the region is increasingly important and considered the changing political geometry of the area, the rise of China and the relationship between Beijing and Washington, as well as relations with other regional players. The rise of China is a phenomenon that can be considered either an opportunity or a challenge. North East Asia can no longer be seen as a remote and isolated region: developments there impinge on the West in every way and should therefore be observed closely. The relationship between North and South Korea remains an unresolved legacy of the Cold War. Since the split, South Korea has developed into one of Asia’s most affluent countries, while the North has slipped into starvation and poverty, albeit with a huge military capability and claiming legitimate recognition as a nuclear-armed state. Meanwhile, Japan has seriously reviewed its current security policy which is largely driven by the perceived military threat from North Korea, and is also reviewing its so-called “peace constitution”, allowing for greater flexibility in the deployment and use of its military forces. Dr. Boutillier’s lecture, as always, gave Course Members profound insight into the subject matter and an understanding of the region and its importance for the international scenario.

The speakers on South Asia, covering Pakistan and Afghanistan, were Dr Samina Ahmed, Project Director for South Asia at the International Crisis Group, Islamabad, Pakistan, and Dr Richard D. Hooker Jr, Dean of the NDC. Sources of instability in the region include bitter inter-state and intra-state conflict, nuclear and missile proliferation, terrorism, religious extremism, separatism, demographic pressures and drugs. Both speakers agreed that the international community should be concerned by the internal tensions in Pakistan, as they could impact on future developments and also on the security situation in Afghanistan. Dr. Hooker gave a detailed analysis of the state of affairs in Afghanistan. As this topic is of great concern to NATO, it triggered lively interaction between the Course Members and the panel.

The second part of SP E will end with a lecture on India, one of the world’s economic giants, its growth rate vying with China’s. The lecture will be delivered by Dr. Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu, a Senior Fellow at the Centre for International Cooperation, New York University. During the last decade India has emerged as a major power and has experienced remarkable economic development. It plays a key security role in South Asia. The Senior Course will discuss the complexities of state affairs and security challenges in India, as well as in the region as a whole.

Overall, it has been a highly rewarding academic program, with a range of thought-provoking and stimulating lectures which provided an introduction to some of the important issues in the regions discussed. The NATO Defense College and the Senior Course has been privileged to be addressed by such a distinguished group of high-level experts. It has been an excellent opportunity not only to enhance understanding of regional issues, but also to consider contemporary security concerns in an era of global interdependence.

NDC Public Affairs Office
(Prepared by Mrs. Daria Skodnik Daniels, NDC Visiting Scholar)