Into the Grey at the NDC: Grey-Zone Warfare in Past, Present and Future

On 12 December, the NATO Defense College Research Division hosted “Into the Grey”, the third workshop in a series underpinning the development of a book project. This workshop gathered contributors to the project to discuss the concept of “grey-zone warfare”, examining the increasingly blurred lines between peace and war in the 21st century as the nature of conflict evolves.

Participants engaging in the sessions and discussions on the “grey zone” with their own research insights and comments on the project’s work.

Research Division Director Dr Florence Gaub delivering her opening remarks to participants in the event on grey-zone warfare.

Participants engaging in the sessions and discussions on the “grey zone” with their own research insights and comments on the project’s work.

Professor Wyss delivering his opening remarks and more detailed explanation about the project to participants.

Participants engaging in the sessions and discussions on the “grey zone” with their own research insights and comments on the project’s work.

Participants engaging in the sessions and discussions on the “grey zone” with their own research insights and comments on the project’s work.

Participants engaging in the sessions and discussions on the “grey zone” with their own research insights and comments on the project’s work.

“Into the Grey” workshop participants at the NATO Defense College.

Focusing on historical and modern challenges, the project aims to develop a framework to understand and analyse “grey-zone warfare”. Through interdisciplinary research and international collaboration, it seeks to inform stakeholders such as policymakers, researchers and the public, while reflecting on strategies to address these increasingly complex threats. Reflecting on her past and present work at the College, NDC Research Director Dr Florence Gaub opened the workshop by emphasizing the enduring relevance of the Alliance in today’s evolving security landscape.

Professor Marco Wyss from Lancaster University and Associate Professor Samuël Kruizinga from the University of Amsterdam explained that the “grey zone” is neither war nor peace, adding that it represents a distinct and urgent strategic challenge. Policy debates now centre on how to navigate and succeed in the “grey zone”, a key aspect of strategic thinking and planning that, according to both scholars, remains under-conceptualized.

The sessions explored topics of importance when seeking to refine frameworks and align them with current military strategies and doctrines. Presentations were delivered by various experts, addressing the past, present and future of the “grey zone”. Topics discussed during the workshop included Grey-Zone Warfare in the Medieval World, 700-1200; The Grey Sahel: Between War and Peace in Africa; and The Philippines’ “Assertive Transparency” Counter-Grey-Zone Strategy in the South China Sea. A diverse group of participants, including academics, practitioners and experts from France, the UK, Germany, Denmark, Singapore and the Netherlands, actively engaged in the sessions as contributors to the book project.

NDC Public Affairs Office
(Prepared by Ms Britt Melinga, NLD C)