- Research Paper 86: “The New Logic of the Syrian Conflict and its Meaning for NATO”, by Jean-Loup Samaan
As the Syrian crisis persists despite the prevailing conviction in the Western media that Bashar Al Assad’s regime is doomed, its escalation to the whole of the Middle East is an increasingly distinct prospect. The deployment of NATO Patriot missiles in Türkiye to protect its borders highlights that the Alliance is now forced to discuss the issue internally as well as with its partners in the region.
Despite genuine hesitation about intervening in Syria, concern about preserving security in the direct vicinity of the country is growing in earnest. Since the summer of 2012, the Syrian conflict has been escalating to a regional level that is already challenging the security of NATO’s members and is putting the balance of power in the Middle East to the test: the crisis is becoming more and more the regional center of gravity, with the stability of neighboring countries depending on the fate of the regime in Damascus.
In this perspective, the new Research Paper from the NATO Defense College argues that there is thus an urgent need for the Alliance to move from a passive to a proactive approach, reassessing the logic of the conflict and defining a policy to contain spillover from it. If direct military intervention remains out of the question, this does not mean that NATO should continue not to be involved. Having no military role does not mean lacking a diplomatic position. NATO should start to implement a strategy combining a proper declaratory policy and diplomatic engagement with its partners.
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