During the period 4th – 13th January 2011, Senior Course 117 continued its in-depth study of the important geographical regions within and beyond the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) territory, from a global point of view as well as from a NATO perspective. Particular emphasis was placed on the various regions’ impact on regional (and global) stability or instability, and what this means for the Alliance. During the academic programme, a series of visiting experts offered their thoughts on the Middle East, on South, North-East and Central Asia, and on the Caucasus.
Two of the Study Period lectures were devoted to the Middle East. Visiting lecturers were Prof. George Joffé from Great Britain, Prof. Mazin Quimsiyeh, a USA citizen of Palestinian origin, and Mr Yossi Mekelberg, an Israeli/British citizen. The Middle East is an area of global strategic importance that faces huge challenges, including modernization and reform, the development of basic democratic and human rights, education and literacy, the reduction of poverty and the need to address an upsurge of Islamic radicalism. The first lecturer, Prof. Joffé, gave a profound analysis of the Iranian crisis, the situation in Iraq and the status of other regional actors, concluding with a summary of future security challenges in the region. After this comprehensive survey, Prof. Quimsiyeh and Mr Mekelberg focused in detail on one of the longest-lasting and at the same time most explosive of all the world’s conflicts – the tragic ongoing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, helping the audience to understand the wide range of underlying issues.
The lectures on China and North East Asia were both delivered by Dr James Boutilier, special adviser to the Canadian Maritime Forces and an “Honorary Ancien” of the NDC. He examined why the region is increasingly important and considered its changing political geometry, the rise of China and the relationship between Beijing and Washington. The rise of China is a phenomenon that can be considered either an opportunity or a challenge. North East Asia can no longer be seen as a distant realm: developments there bear directly on the West in every way and should therefore be observed closely. Against this background, the relationship between North and South Korea remains an unresolved legacy of the Cold War. Since their division, South Korea has developed into one of Asia’s most affluent countries, but the North has slipped into starvation and poverty, while maintaining huge military capacity and claiming legitimate recognition as a nuclear-armed state. Meanwhile, Japan has seriously reviewed its current security policy, largely driven by the perceived military threat from North Korea, and is also reviewing its so-called “peace constitution”, allowing for greater flexibility in the deployment and use of its military forces. Dr Boutilier’s lectures, as always, gave Course Members profound insight into the subject matter and an understanding of the region and beyond.
“South Asia: India” was the topic of a lecture delivered by Dr David Scott from Brunel University, London. During the last decade India has continued to emerge as a major power and has experienced remarkable economic development; it plays a key security role in South Asia. Dr Scott provided a strategic and security profile of Southern Asia and discussed its implications for India. The Senior Course was impressed by Dr Scott’s highly informed perspective on regional geopolitics.
The speakers on South Asia, covering Pakistan and Afghanistan, were Dr Samina Ahmed, Project Director for South Asia at the International Crisis Group, Islamabad, Pakistan and Dr. Richard D. Hooker, Jr, Dean of NDC. Within the region, sources of instability include bitter inter-state and intra-state conflict, nuclear and missile proliferation, terrorism, religious extremism, separatism, demographic pressures and drugs. Both speakers agreed that Pakistan is in a situation fraught with risk and that the international community should be concerned by the potential for rising tensions within the country, in relation to possible future scenarios and also to the security situation in Afghanistan. Dr. Hooker gave a profound analysis of the state of affairs in Afghanistan. The topic is of great concern to NATO and triggered high-level interaction between the Course Members and the two panellists.
During the Study Period, members of Senior Course 117 also listened to the Lecture of Opportunity given by H.E. Mr. Araz AZIMOV, the Azerbaijani Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, on “Security in the South Caucasus region in the Euro-Atlantic Context”. This provided considerable added value to the overall discussion of the Caucasus which was the day’s scheduled topic; the initial insight into security issues for the Caucasus provided by Mr. Azimov appropriately set the scene for a thorough and detailed academic analysis by Mr. Vladimir SOCOR of the Jamestown Foundation, Washington. His lecture focused particularly on Western involvement and interests in the region, especially those related to transit of energy supplies, and on current developments in and prospects for the various territorial conflicts in the region.
The Study Period Academic Curriculum ended with a lecture by Dr Shirin Akiner, former Professor of Central Asian Studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies of the University of London, and currently Fellow of the Cambridge Central Asia Forum, University of Cambridge. Dr. Akiner is also an “Honorary Ancien” of the NDC. She discussed key demographic, economic and social data for the five Central Asian states, putting into perspective differences and commonalities as well as challenges ahead. Today there is a risk of further deterioration in the economic and security climate in Central Asia, as well as of militant political and religious groups coming more to the fore. Future unrest could have a huge impact on the wider region. Dr Akiner’s lecture greatly enhanced Course Members’ understanding of the area and triggered a very lively discussion.
At the conclusion of the very successful Study Period E and as part of the “consolidation” process, each Senior Course Committee was tasked to produce a short paper on the five regions considered to be potentially the greatest threats of future instability and even of escalation into conflict. These papers listed the regions in order of priority and included a short analysis of why the Committee came to their conclusions, why NATO should be concerned and what action the Alliance might take to promote peace and stability in the regions covered.
Overall, these were two highly rewarding weeks, with a range of thought-provoking and stimulating lectures which offered an introduction to many of the important issues in the regions discussed. The NATO Defense College and the Senior Course Members were privileged to be addressed by a variety of high-level experts. It was an excellent opportunity not only to improve understanding of the regions examined but also to consider contemporary security issues in an era of global interdependence.
NDC Public Affairs Office
(Prepared by Col. Daria DANIELS ŠKODNIK, SVN A)
NATO Defense College