NDC Insight 07-2025: What if…? Ten Dragon King scenarios for 2030, by Silvia Colombo, Peter Dobias, Artur Leșcu, Mark McQuay, Clarisa Nelu, Roderick Parkes, Olesya Vinhas de Souza, Marwa Wasfi and Thomas Withington.
Edited by Florence Gaub
Surprise isn’t just something we like or don’t like. Surprise has strategic value. When unexpected events unfold, humans need time to respond as their brains update their world view, hence the initial reaction to freeze. In war time, this freeze moment can be a real asset. Reducing surprise involves early warning: detecting developments early enough to understand, and if necessary, counter them.
As in the previous What If edition, authors were asked to think of a possible development resulting from a weak signal, an indication of a change that they would often have overlooked. Each scenario in this publication has a basis in reality, even if the probability of the scenario occurring may be low. Their utility lies not in their likelihood, but in their capacity to engage you in innovative thinking, which in turn increases your mental preparedness. They are called Dragon Kings: rare, but impactful when they do occur.
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