NDC Outlook 2026-02: A new face of war – Russian military strategy post-Ukraine, by Oscar Jonsson1
Summary
Among Russian strategists, there is a strong renewed appreciation for positional warfare and a strategy of attrition. This is a pivot from Russia’s pre-war strategy of “active defence,” which sought to move away from positional defence towards manoeuvre.
The strength of a positional and defensive strategy comes from technological innovation, with an exponential growth in unmanned systems and space-based sensors, which are believed to make the battlefield transparent. The transparent battlefield concept challenges key principles of manoeuvre warfare, such as concentrating forces and surprise.
A key priority for Russian strategists is to break the positional deadlock and re-establish the conditions for manoeuvre. This can be done through technological development in AI and drones and a more networked military that can mass fires across the entire depth of the adversary.
In a potential war with Russia, NATO will face a military that is experienced on a drone- and sensor -rich battlefield and that is increasing its ability to look beyond the frontline and strike further into the operational depth. The Russian military is putting effort into re-establishing the conditions for manoeuvre while denying their adversary the ability to do the same.
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