The history of China’s future – Lessons from the CIA

NDC Outlook 01-2024: The history of China’s future – Lessons from the CIA, by Dylan Levi King ¹

Summary

• Getting China’s future wrong is getting the world’s future wrong.
• China forecasts are currently marred by emotion and bias.
• The CIA’s 1973 China forecasts provide a useful insight on how to change this.
• The main lesson is to stay away from extreme scenarios and maintain analytical independence and unwillingness to indulge in extreme scenarios.

NDC Public Affairs Office

1. Freelance writer and translator ↩︎