The history of China’s future – Lessons from the CIA

• NDC Outlook 01-2024: The history of China’s future – Lessons from the CIA, by Dylan Levi King *

Summary

• Getting China’s future wrong
  is getting the world’s future
  wrong.
• China forecasts are currently
  marred by emotion and bias.
• The CIA’s 1973 China forecasts
  provide a useful insight on how to
  change this.
• The main lesson is to stay away
  from extreme scenarios and
  maintain analytical independence
  and unwillingness to indulge in
  extreme scenarios.

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